The Equalisation Enigma: Is the AFL's Competitive Balance a Myth or a Reality?
The heart of Australian Rules Football beats with the fervent hope of millions – that their team, this year, might just reach glory. Each week, fans flock to stadiums or tune in, driven by the belief in a level playing field where any team can triumph. Yet, a chorus of prominent media voices suggests this foundational promise of competitive equality is eroding, pushing the sport towards an existential crisis. But does empirical evidence support this alarming prognosis?
For over four decades, the Australian Football League has consistently refined mechanisms aimed at fostering competitive equity across its ranks. The past ten years, in particular, have seen significant overhauls to rules governing player acquisition, including multiple adjustments to draft and trading regulations, with further changes introduced even in the last year. On the field, the league continually fine-tunes rules to amplify the athleticism inherent in the game, striving to create an environment where teams of diverse strengths can engage in evenly matched contests. While umpiring decisions frequently baffle players, coaches, commentators, and spectators alike, these calls often appear to balance out across both sides.
The Perceived Imbalance
Despite these ongoing adjustments, some observers continue to paint a dire picture. Commercial radio host Mark Duffield declared earlier this year that “the AFL is in danger of becoming the most unequalised equalised competition in the history of sport.” Not to be outdone, media pundit Kane Cornes echoed concerns about the league's competitive equilibrium. “This is almost a crisis level situation where we have poor teams, great teams, and then a couple in the middle, and it's no good,” he asserted.
A casual review of recent ladders reveals a consistent presence of powerhouses like Brisbane, Geelong, and Sydney perpetually vying for premierships, while North Melbourne, West Coast, and Richmond have frequently found themselves at the ladder's lower echelons. Geelong, for instance, has been a perennial contender for more than two decades, a testament to enduring success.
The Data Speaks: A Tighter Competition
Despite these narratives, many coaches and players frequently suggest that the actual on-field gap between the league's best and worst sides is narrower than ever, making every match a genuine test. Indeed, recent seasons indicate that the competitive landscape on the field is arguably at its most intense in the modern era. The proportion of games decided by close margins has reached historical highs, a remarkable trend given an increase in scoring this year, which typically correlates with larger winning differentials.
The bottom of the ladder, too, exhibits a competitiveness not seen in at least 15 years. Although Essendon secured only one victory this season, their percentage — a key measure of competitive performance — stands as the best for a presumptive wooden spooner at this stage since 2010. The Bombers have consistently featured in tightly contested matches, often narrowly missing out on victory.
AFL chief Andrew Dillon, while acknowledging the importance of equalisation, offered a more tempered perspective. “So it's important for us (the AFL) on field — equalisation is important. But there's always been a team that comes (last) and there's a team that finishes on top,” Dillon remarked on the ABC AFL Daily Podcast in March.
Melbourne coach Steven King reinforced the notion of a fiercely competitive league after a recent win. “I was a bit edgy this morning driving in. I was a bit short at home. Probably because it's a game on paper you're expected to win and we dropped this one against Essendon last time,” King told the media. “They were really competitive last week. So, yeah, you've got to rock up. No one gives you a four points. You've got to go and earn it.”
This widespread parity extends to September's ultimate battles. Every one of the eighteen clubs has participated in finals football within the last decade, with teams cycling through the playoff race with notable regularity. The expansion to a ten-team finals format this year further enhances the likelihood of this trend continuing, potentially even for North Melbourne.
Despite perceived or actual discrepancies in draft, free agency, trade, and fixture dynamics, the competition has largely managed to recalibrate itself. More teams have contested the Grand Final over any ten-year span since 2000 than at any point since World War II. While the league has expanded, the finite number of Grand Final berths makes this a compelling indicator of broader competitive opportunity. This trend of league-wide equity has ignited hope for a greater number of fans and provided more clubs with genuine chances at ultimate success. Such statistics compare favorably with other major sporting leagues that employ play-off systems, suggesting no immediate red flags regarding the AFL's equity.
Enduring Challenges and Rebound Potential
While hope is a powerful motivator, years spent languishing at the bottom of the ladder can severely test the loyalty of even the most devoted supporters. The joy of a Friday night win is often matched by the weariness of watching your team suffer defeat week after week.
Historically, a cluster of teams typically endures extended periods at the foot of the standings, and the current AFL landscape is no exception. Heading into the 2026 season, North Melbourne had concluded six consecutive seasons in the bottom four. For four of those years, West Coast joined them, with Richmond occupying the lower rungs for the past three seasons. While this streak of underperformance by three clubs might appear anti-competitive, it represents an improvement compared to historical norms. Before the turn of the new millennium, during the league's pre-modern history, teams at the bottom often remained there for prolonged durations. As recently as 1994, an average of four clubs monopolized the bottom four for half a decade, with Brisbane, Sydney, Richmond, Fitzroy, and St Kilda being prime examples.
Crucially, a club's descent to the bottom of the standings does not seal its fate. When a team finishes in the bottom four, it possesses an approximate 50 percent chance of returning to finals contention within the subsequent four seasons. Remarkably, around a quarter of these bottom-four sides manage to make the significant leap into the top four. These rates have seen a slight attenuation over the last decade, potentially influenced by a more compromised draft system and, certainly, by the presence of two additional non-finalists annually in the 18-team era. Nevertheless, the general pattern of clubs largely recovering after a brief stint at the bottom holds true in recent seasons. The introduction of a 10-team finals system this season and a 19th team by 2028 are poised to further reshape these probabilities.