A growing wave of voter dissatisfaction is sweeping across regional Victoria, particularly in the state's east, threatening to dramatically reshape the political landscape ahead of the upcoming November election. Residents, feeling increasingly disenfranchised by mainstream parties, are turning their attention to alternative political forces, indicating a potentially complex and unpredictable electoral contest.

For years, Jodie Hamill successfully ran local pubs, but the escalating cost of doing business eventually forced her to sell. Now, facing economic uncertainties, she is among a growing number of Victorians looking to One Nation for solutions. Speaking in Sale, Ms Hamill articulated a sentiment common in rural and regional areas, stating, “Living in the country, I don't know anyone that's going to vote Liberal or Labor anymore. They're wanting to vote One Nation and give 'em a go.” This frustration with established political entities is a significant factor in the impending election.

Gippsland: A Hotbed of Discontent

Published polling data reveals that One Nation is attracting support from at least a quarter of Victorian voters statewide, but its influence is particularly pronounced in the eastern region. The four state seats within Gippsland—Morwell, Gippsland South, and Gippsland East, traditionally held by the Nationals, alongside Narracan, a Liberal stronghold—are now considered highly vulnerable. Political analysts and insiders within the Coalition agree that Morwell, in particular, has become a focal point, described by some as "ground zero" for this burgeoning movement.

Baw Baw Councillor Ben Lucas, a prominent One Nation executive member, has expressed significant optimism for the party's prospects. Speaking in his capacity as a local representative, Cr Lucas boldly predicted victories in all four Gippsland seats, in addition to securing two spots in the Eastern Victoria Region for the upper house. He attributes this confidence to the palpable sentiment observed in local communities, suggesting that social media interactions offer an unvarnished view of public opinion.

While One Nation has yet to announce specific candidates for the Victorian election, Cr Lucas has publicly indicated his intention to run. The party's policy platform for Victoria remains intentionally concise. Cr Lucas suggests this lean approach is a deliberate strategy, citing a "short, sharp campaign" in a recent South Australian election that yielded significant success, securing seven seats. He believes voters are experiencing "election fatigue" and are weary of extensive, often vague, political promises.

Root Causes of Regional Shift

Political strategists acknowledge that One Nation's appeal often transcends detailed policy proposals. As pollster Kosmos Samaras observed, the party functions less on specific policies and more as a "brand" – a vehicle for Victorians to express their discontent with the traditional two-party system. This sentiment is particularly strong in Gippsland, an area that has experienced considerable economic decline following the closure of major coal mines, power plants, and timber mills. The winding down of these foundational industries has left many small towns reeling from job losses and a sense of neglect, with many residents attributing these changes to government decisions.

The impact of this economic upheaval is acutely felt in Morwell, where it is anticipated One Nation's primary vote will be exceptionally high. While incumbency might offer some protection for established politicians, such as Nationals leader Danny O'Brien in Gippsland South, the retirement of long-serving MP Tim Bull in Gippsland East presents an easier path for new contenders. The Nationals have endorsed Bairnsdale teacher Gemma Rendell as Mr Bull's successor, a candidate known for her community leadership ambitions and her background as a hunter.

A recent Redbridge poll underscored the shift, showing One Nation securing 32 percent of the primary vote in the Eastern Victorian upper house region—which encompasses all of Gippsland. This placed them ahead of the Coalition, polling at 28 percent, and Labor, at 22 percent.

Major Parties Grapple with Shifting Tides

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, aiming to end 12 years of Labor government, has been actively campaigning in Gippsland as part of her "fresh start tour." While Ms Wilson was reportedly warmly received during curated events and meetings with local businesses, opportunities for direct interaction with a broader range of voters were limited. Notably, Ms Hamill, the former publican, was photographed with Ms Wilson in Sale, an image later shared on the opposition leader's social media.

Nationals leader Danny O'Brien openly acknowledged the formidable challenge posed by the rising support for One Nation. He admitted, "I think it's a real threat. Absolutely, we understand people are angry. We understand people are frustrated with the major parties." However, Mr O'Brien expressed hope that as the election approaches, voters would focus on which party is best equipped to govern. He urged constituents to consider that to remove the current Labor government, they must cast their votes for the Nationals and Liberals, rather than what he described as "parties of protest and grievance" which may lack comprehensive solutions or clear leadership for Victoria. He highlighted that issues such as immigration, while concerning to some voters, are not within the control of the state government.

The task of convincing a frustrated electorate of these nuances will be critical in determining the outcome of the November election, as traditional political loyalties continue to be tested across regional Victoria.