Victoria's complex election landscape: multiple oppositions vie for power

Victoria is in the midst of a complex election campaign, with multiple parties vying for power in the state. The traditional opposition, led by the Liberal and National Coalition, is seeking to capitalize on the government's 12-year term and make the election a referendum on Labor's performance.

However, two other parties are also positioning themselves as alternatives to the current government. One Nation, led by Queensland senator Pauline Hanson, has released a policy platform focused on law and order and tax relief, and polls suggest they may attract around one in four voters in the state.

But perhaps most unusually, the Labor government itself is also seeking to distance itself from its own legacy. Premier Ben Carroll has been at pains to differentiate himself from his predecessors, Daniel Andrews and Jacinta Allan, despite being a minister in their governments.

Carroll's strategy

On Sunday, Carroll promised to wind back land tax increases implemented by Labor in 2023, in a bid to appeal to voters. This move is part of a broader strategy to sandbag seats and prevent a swing against the government.

At a campaign event, Carroll highlighted his plans for his own electorate, including a new station in Niddrie as part of the long-awaited airport rail line. However, the project has been delayed, and it is unclear when trains will arrive at the airport.

The delay has been described as a budget-saving measure by Carroll and his treasurer, Colin Brooks. However, it is a risk for the government, given the long-standing desire of Melburnians for a train to the airport.

Localized pledges

With limited funds available for big-ticket items, Victorians can expect to see more localized pledges from Labor as they try to hold onto seats. For example, Carroll announced on social media that Labor would pump $15 million into a basketball centre in his electorate if he is returned in November.

Public perception

Despite these efforts, the government still faces a significant challenge in terms of public perception. Many Victorians are in the mood for a change of government, driven by concerns about corruption and the government's handling of issues like the Big Build.

Carroll has moved to address some of these concerns, introducing laws championed by the Coalition and promising to be more fiscally responsible. However, it is unclear whether these efforts will be enough to shift public opinion.

Integrity and corruption

Asked about critiques that he is leading a pseudo-opposition, Carroll said: "I'm different."

"I made it very clear. You only have to look at what I've done already," he said, rattling off his list of policy pivots, including the royal commission, fixing pot-holed roads and tax relief.

"I'm working hard every day, day and night, to do what I think is in Victoria's interests."

The issue of integrity is likely to be a key theme in the election, with all parties recognizing its importance. The recent death of Greens MP Tim Read, a champion of integrity and anti-corruption efforts, has highlighted the need for action on this issue.

Laws to boost the state's Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission passed parliament in its final sitting days, a rare example of cross-party collaboration.